| By Peter Bowes BBC News, Portland, Oregon |
A US gym has installed specially-adapted exercise bikes that recycle energy generated by people as they work out. The Green Microgym in Portland, Oregon, aims to be a carbon neutral exercise facility through the use of solar power and human-generated energy from clients as they pedal and run. “The big challenge has been finding the right equipment and adapting the technology,” says Adam Boesel, the gym owner. The science behind generating electricity from gym equipment is not new. For decades people have been using dynamos on their bikes to power the front and rear lamps. Generating power in a gym setting is based on the same principle. “If you think about a gym, almost all of the exercise equipment has a spinning wheel, and if you can spin a wheel you can make electricity, just like a windmill makes electricity,” explains Mr Boesel. The gym has teamed up with a Texas-based company, Henry Works, which is in the process of developing what it has dubbed the Human Dynamo. The device connects several exercise bikes with a battery that stores the energy generated as people pedal. External appliances, such as a TV set or a lamp, can then be plugged into the box, to utilise the power. The exercise equipment generates DC power. The Human Dynamo uses an inverter to convert it into AC, which is required by domestic appliances to work. “A lot of gyms have large spinning group exercises with 30 or 40 or 50 people exercising at the same time - and that’s a perfect environment to use a machine like this,” explains Mike Taggett, who invented the Human Dynamo. “Everyone is working extra hard and you have a lot of people doing it at the same time, and a machine like the dynamo, if you figure a 100 watts per machine and you have 40 machines that’s 4,000 watts. “In a club that doesn’t have high air-conditioning requirements, for example, they would definitely be powering the whole gym, during that time period.” Connecting to the grid The challenge for the future is developing a mass storage system for the electricity. The most efficient way is channel it into the grid operated by a local utility company. The system is already used to integrate solar generated power with the electricity supply system. “We are working on a new generation technology which we call fire wheel which is a really interesting way to connect the power directly to the grid, says Mr Taggett. “Most utilities now have net-metering types of agreements for solar use or if you have wind turbines or something like that. “So it would be a matter I think of notifying your local utility company that you have this human power fire wheel equipment installed.” The downside, for gym owners, is that the system requires a significant amount of capital to install energy-generating equipment. “We’ve actually thought about it for years,” says George Comalli, owner of Giants Gym, a large workout facility, also in Portland. “We’ve always thought it was one of those things that the technology was probably out there somewhere, but was it cost effective?” In a tight economy, the cost of harnessing human energy may be too high a price to pay for some. The challenge for the companies that supply the new generation of environmentally friendly exercise equipment is to make it affordable. But Adam Boesel’s gym is forging ahead. The facility also employs energy saving practices such as switching TV sets off and powering down exercise equipment when it is not in use. The frugal use of electricity alone saves the gym over 50 per cent on energy costs. Solar panels on the front of the building generate about a third of the electricity the gym needs to operate. “We need to understand how much it takes to run light bulbs and all of the things that we take for granted, especially here in the United States,” says Mr Boesel. “We waste so much energy and by starting this gym and really being focused on energy conservation, there are so many things that I’ve found that are very easy for people to do to save energy.” The goal is to have the gym run solely on the energy it generates. “Especially in these times, the ability to at least make some small impact on improving the future of not only this country or the community, but really the worldis a really motivating factor for people right now.” “I think in 20 years it’s going to be standard for all gyms,’ adds Mr Boesel.
Will YouTube’s dominance of video sharing come to an end? Will we all own a smartphone and has Apple changed the game yet again? Maggie Shiels continues her look at some of the predictions for 2009.
MOBILITY
With more than three billion cell phones in the world and one billion PCs, mobility is the buzz word for 2009.
Smartphones are set to gain a bigger market share in the next year and industry watchers predict that by 2012, they will make up 75% of all phones sold in the US. By 2015, they will represent 65% of all phones sold globally.
The Pew Internet and American Life Project has said that the mobile phone will become the primary means of internet access across the globe by 2020. The growth will largely be driven in emerging economies like India, China and Brazil.
Yahoo agrees, and views the mobile market as a major revenue opportunity that will really take off with advertisers and marketers this year.
“We are seeing a lot more interest in mobile and we believe 2009 is going to be a bit of a tipping point,” said Michael Bayle, Yahoo’s senior director of global mobile.
“30% of consumers will browse certain mobile sites at the expense of visiting those same sites on the PC. One example comes from ESPN in February when more people came to the NFL (National Football League) site on mobile rather than on the PC.”
Mr Bayle said for advertisers and marketers to really make an impact in the mobile world, they have to think smart.
“If you ask a consumer ‘Would you like advertising on your phone?’ the answer probably should be no. But if you ask them if they would like some kind of relevant content and some kind of entertainment perhaps say when their flight is delayed or they are killing time, then the answer is generally yes.
“We believe that is a great value proposition and why advertising can carry great value to consumers,” said Mr Bayle.
THE GAME CHANGER
It would be fair to say that for Apple, the App Store has surprassed the company’s wildest expectations.
When Steve Jobs appeared on stage in September to update the download numbers, there was a sense that even he could not believe its success.
To date it has handled more than 300 million downloads with two million a day from a store that offers 10,000 applications for sale.
The store has spawned a whole new industry with the venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers getting in on the act with its own fund to seed companies making apps for the market.
One such company that has had phenomenal success with its applications is Tapulous, based in Palo Alto. It started with a free game called Tap Tap Revenge in which players tap and shake their devices to the beat of a tune.
The game has garnered over three million downloads and attracted some big name music artists who asked to have their music used in the game. They include Weezer, Nine Inch Nails, Moby and Daft Punk.
Tapulous chief executive Bart Decrem said the iPhone has taken the industry to a whole new level.
“The business models are still shaking out because it is still the beginning of this phenomenon, even though apps have actually been around for about a decade. It is the iPhone and the App Store that has led to critical adoption by users.”
Mr Decrem said he predicts that with so many apps now available, it is hard to sort the wheat from the chaff which means something has to change.
“I think what you are going to see in 2009 is price options settle out and the barriers to entry go up and up. For the first six months of the App Store, anyone could build a cool little app and you might get buzz around that.
“I think in 2009 we are going to see that mature and that means users are going to have higher expectations and the cost of entry is going to go up somewhat because you are going to have to offer richer, more sophisticated experiences,” predicted Mr Decrem.
ONLINE VIDEO
2008 has been a year of shifting sands for the world of online video.
YouTube may well have popularised video on the web, but Hulu, which just launched in March, is providing strong competition.
The joint venture between NBC and News Corp, has managed to prove there is a market for professional video online. Hulu was chosen by the Associated Press as its pick for website of the year.
YouTube still dominates the market with 83 million unique visitors in October compared to Hulu’s 23 million. But Hulu is planning to go international next year.
But both sites prove that a new generation is growing up with online video.
“Every generation exhibits some distinctive behaviour,” said Jim Patterson, product manager at YouTube.
“Marketers like to caricature them and give them names: baby boomers, generation X and generation Y. I think we are seeing the emergence of a video generation.
“This generation of users utilize the web differently and consume video differently. They grew up in an environment where digital, interactive media was ubiquitous. It has shaped how they use the web.”
And Mr Patterson said this new video generation has also shaped the very nature of how YouTube is being used.
“Comscore is estimating that YouTube is the second largest search engine,” he said.
“To this cohort, YouTube is their search engine. YouTube ‘is’ the web. Seeking the answer to any question, they prefer that the result be expressed as a video, so they go to YouTube.”
A professor who invented a forerunner of the world wide web has been made a dame in the New Year Honours.
Wendy Hall created the “open hypermedia system” Microcosm with colleagues after joining the University of Southampton computer science group in 1984.
And in 1994 she became the university’s first female professor of engineering.
Professor Hall, 56, was made a CBE in 2000 for services to science and technology and is considered one of the best computer scientists in the world.
She was president of the British Computer Society from 2003 to 2004, and in 2005 became the first woman to be appointed senior vice president of the Royal Academy of Engineering.
More recently, Professor Hall co-founded the world’s first interdisciplinary body to study the structure and sociology of the web, the Web Science Research Initiative (WSRI), with internet inventor Sir Tim Berners-Lee, Southampton professor Nigel Shadbolt and Daniel Weitzner, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Throughout her career Professor Hall has championed the role of her female colleagues in computing and the sciences and worked to ensure developments in technology benefit women as well as men.
“I am thrilled to have been honoured in this way,” she said.
“It is of course exciting for me personally and for my family, but it is also a tribute to all the people I have worked with in my career as a scientist and engineer both at Southampton and in the wider community.”
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A survey of more than 27,000 web users in 16 countries has shown that the Chinese spend the largest fraction of their leisure time online.
However, UK housewives spend even more than China’s average - 47%.
Germans are the most likely to meet someone in real life that they first met online; more than two thirds have done so.
The study also found that the UK is the least trusting of information in its newspapers among the 16 countries.
The study was conducted by global market information group TNS, which asked 27,522 people aged between 18 and 55 to answer questions about their web use and compared respondents’ faith in traditional versus online media.
The average respondent in China spends 44% of their leisure time online, nearly three times the amount of the average Danish respondent.
On average across all countries, under-25s spend 36% of their leisure time online; in China, under-25s claim they spend 50%.
In the UK, a breakdown by occupation shows striking differences in the responses; students spend 39%, more than the unemployed (32%) but still far less than housewives.
Face time
And as for online socialising? On average across all countries, respondents had 17 online friends.
However, when asked the question “Have you ever arranged to meet in person people who you’ve met through the internet?”, Germans came out on top with a whopping 76% saying yes.
The Chinese were at the bottom of the 16-strong list, at 40% - still a reasonable fraction reporting they had crossed from online life into real life.
“What comes out in this survey is that we are actively engaging with people online, but we haven’t lost the knack for conventional social contact,” said Arno Hummerston, managing director of TNS.
“At the same time, online acquaintances are now perceived by most of us as real acquaintances.”
The average across all countries was 60% having met online friends face-to-face; the UK was just below that figure at 58%.
A further part of the study comparing online and traditional media and information sources showed national differences.
In the UK, online news sites are second only to friends as the primary source of trusted information; two fifths said they considered online news a “highly trusted” medium.
The UK was markedly less trusting of print media, with only 23% counting newspapers as highly trusted - roughly the same fraction who considered the Wikipedia site as highly trusted. At the top were Finnish respondents, who were some three times more likely - 69% - to describe their newspapers as such.
A private company could be asked to run a huge database containing details of everybody’s telephone calls, emails and internet use, it has been reported.
The option to tender out the management of the database will be included in a consultation paper to be published next month, according to the Guardian.
The Home Office said police had to keep up with technical advances and there would be wide consultation on the plan.
Critics, however, say it poses a serious threat to civil liberties.
Former director of public prosecutions Sir Ken Macdonald reiterated his opposition to the plan in light of the Guardian’s report, dismissing official claims that additional legal assurances would ensure the information is not misused.
He told the paper: “All history tells us that reassurances like these are worthless in the long run. In the first security crisis the locks would loosen.”
The database, which critics claim would cost up to 12bn, is not intended to record the content of communications, but only the details of internet sites visited and what emails and telephone calls have been made, to whom and at what times.
Currently the information has to be requested from communications companies and internet service providers, but it is not always readily available.
A Home Office spokesman said: “The communications revolution has been rapid in this country and the way in which we collect communications data needs to change so that law enforcement agencies can maintain their ability to tackle serious crime and terrorism.
“To ensure that we keep up with technological advances we intend to consult widely on proposals in the New Year.
“We have been very clear that there are no plans for a database containing the content of emails, texts or conversations.”
| By Maggie Shiels Technology reporter, BBC News, San Francisco |
The world of technology is set to face a challenging year in 2009 but many in the industry say it will weather the storm better than the rest of the US. Here Maggie Shiels presents the first of a two-part assessment of how technology will fare over the next 12 months. Despite the continuing fall out from the global credit crisis, there is a mood of optimism around Silicon Valley, which is perhaps not that unusual given its “can do” reputation. The other reason for this upbeat attitude is that in 2000, when the dot com bubble burst, Silicon Valley felt the pain deeply. Venture capital firms all but shut up shop, deals did not get made and nearly a quarter of the workforce were laid off. This time round, things are simply nowhere near as bad. So what does the coming year hold for this area of the world? Here are some of the views of those living and working in the Valley. HIRING AND FIRING There is no avoiding the fact that in technology a lot of people lost their jobs in 2008. The blog TechCrunch has been keeping a track since the beginning of October and the litany of layoffs adds up to over 113,000 across the world. It chronicles pinks slips being handed out by everyone from eBay to Electronic Arts and from Yahoo to Sun Microsystems. It seems no one is immune, yet on CNET’s website, its so-called “spreadsheet of sunshine” shows companies are still hiring. The list includes Cisco, Digg, Salesforce.com and Napster among others. One of the biggest firms in the business of hiring, finding and helping the industry retain talent is Taleo. It has nearly 4,000 customers, including most of the major Fortune 500 companies. Taleo chief executive Michael Gregoire said that in the last quarter it had over 400,000 jobs on file but 10 million people applied for those jobs worldwide. He said he did not think that was an indication that the jobs market is especially tough, but more that “people are always looking to find a better place to work and looking to change their lot in life”. As to Silicon Valley, Mr Gregoire admitted that unemployment will hit the 6-7% mark next year, but that that will be well below the national anticipated rate of 9%. “We are definitely in uncharted waters but if you look at what has happened on the East coast and some of the money centres like London and Tokyo etc, they have felt a very blunt and immediate pain,” said Mr Gregoire. “Here in Silicon Valley a number of things are different. There is so much innovation here and people from all over the world come here because this is where you can truly start a company, work with venture capitalists , get funded and get access to talent you wouldn’t be able to get pretty much anywhere else in the world. “If you think about it, the Googles and the eBays started in the dotcom bomb era and they have gone on to not only be huge companies themselves, but have spawned another world of start ups.” With industry forecasters estimating another 10,000 jobs disappearing in Silicon Valley in 2009, Mr Gregoire pointed to a major change in the bonus structure that will result in a new reality for many top executives. “I think bonuses will come back to being paid for extraordinary performance. Coupled with that, I do think you will see a recalibration of people’s lives. “Many people unfortunately have tried to live their lifestyles off their bonuses and I think they will pare back and start living off their base salaries. There is no doubt about it that that’s going to be painful. It’s going to be painful for companies. It’s going to be painful for individuals.” TECHNOLOGY SPENDING 2008 has already shown that everyone from the lowest to the highest paid has been tightening their belts. That is just as true when it comes to technology spending. And while the figures look bleak for 2009, some are hoping a creative approach will keep things going. Demand for products related to semiconductors, Silicon Valley’s bellwether, is weakening. Industry trade group SEMI expects a 21% decline next year in equipment sales, following a 28% decline this year. Overall, the dotcom bust resulted in spending declines of around 20% while industry experts are pegging it at around 4-5% for 2009. However Logitech, the world’s biggest producer of computer control devices like mice, trackballs and touchpads, said while budget managers will be looking to cut back on spending they will hopefully be doing so with a new twist. “The big challenge out there is whether people will buy new systems in 2009,” said Logitech’s general manager Rory Dooley. “We expect less of that in the coming 12 months, but we do expect people to upgrade existing systems and upgrade them by investing in the interface. We are talking about maybe a better screen, a better mouse, a better keyboard.” Mr Dooley said he believes things will be nowhere near as bad as 2000, when Silicon Valley was the epicentre of the downturn. He also pointed to innovation as the key to the future. “2009 will definitely be a tough year for the technology industry as a whole, but I also think that necessity is the mother of invention and it’s these times that spur a lot of great innovation. “The last recession we had of note was in 2000 and in the US as a whole it was in the early 90s,” he said. “That recession was tough on the Valley. It was really when things were getting outsourced big-time and people said Silicon Valley is going to die, and it was just before Netscape got launched and what became the internet generation came into being. “I am optimistic that 2009 will be a tough year but will bring lots of good things as well,” said Mr Dooley. ROBOTICS, HAPTICS AND ALL THINGS GREEN So if innovation is being seen as the Valley’s way out of the recession, just what does that look like? Industry watchers continue to name “clean tech” as an area of innovation and one that will attract a lot of venture capital funding. One of the most respected VC firms, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, has bet a lot on this. Earlier this year the company opened a $500 million (322 million) special fund for green investments. Not surprisingly the company’s John Doerr has called clean tech the “biggest economic opportunity of this century” and “the mother of all markets”. He is not alone in thinking this. VC investment in this area increased 44% to $5.2bn in 2007. Other technologies that seem to be getting people excited are robotics and haptics, the science of touch. “One word that should be in everybody’s vocabulary is haptics,” said technology forecaster and futurist Paul Saffo. “At the moment we look at our machines and they look at us but they don’t have the sense of physical touch or feedback. So haptics is the way to give sensory touch between machines and humans. He said their use, while common in things like surgery, is creeping into everyday technologies such as the Nintendo Wii console and the iPhone. He also described the increasing use of haptics as part of a “sensor revolution”. “The real event of the decade is running below the surface and all those sensors are helping connect our computers and our networks to the physical world. “We are giving them sensory organs, vision, eyes, RFID sensors, meme sensors, accelerometers. Basically, we are now asking our computers and our networks to observe and manipulate the physical world around us and on our behalf. That is the really big technology event of 2009″ Mr Saffo also highlighted robotics as another technology that will enter the mainstream. “The real event is probably two to three years away but it’s the robotics revolution. Just as in the 1980s cheap microprocessors gave us the personal computer, the poster child of the processing revolution in the 90s. Lasers gave us the bandwidth, the world wide web. “Well, the sensor revolution is about to deliver robots into our lives. So the big “it” gift for Christmas in a couple of years; the thing that is going to amaze and astound people the way the PC did and the web did, is going to be ubiquitous robots,” predicted Mr Saffo. He said the robot that will have the biggest impact on our lives is the “robot made of pure software. Autonomous devices doing things on our behalf on the web”. Mr Saffo said such devices are already here. “If you apply for a mortgage, it’s not reviewed by a human. It’s reviewed by a software ‘bot that is making decisions about the future of your life. “Software ‘bots are all over the web, handling transactions, making decisions about airplane tickets and the like. They are here and they are just going to increase,” stated Mr Saffo.
| By Daniel Emery Technology reporter, BBC News |
As 2008 draws to a close and with 2009 just around the corner, it has been an eventful year for the games industry. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 surpassed expectations, Wii Fit showed us that you can play video games and still keep the spare tyre in check, Gears of War 2 proved the Xbox 360 was still a force to be reckoned with, selling over two million units world wide. World of Warcraft released the Wrath of the Lich King and kept millions of gamers glued to their PCs for another six months, and Grand Theft Auto IV took the world by storm. But with the economy cooling, games companies like Sony shedding jobs, and a shortage of triple A titles scheduled for release, what does 2009 have in store for gamers and the video game industry? We put that question to some of the industry stalwarts, asking them for their thoughts on how 2008 has been for them and what they think the next year will bring. PETER MOLYNEUX: Video game designer, Lionhead Studios “2008 was the year that the Nintendo Wii got even better, more than anyone really thought possible when it first launched. The 360 did well, although it was put into the shade somewhat by the Wii. PlayStation 3 has been disappointing to say the least. On the gaming front, GTA IV was a real moment for the industry. Rockstar nailed how you characterise a game and their engine and cut sequences are state of the art. However, only a few people actually saw all the cut sequences because the game was so tough to play. Are we making games too difficult? That’s a question the industry has been asking itself of late. We - as developers - are finally comfortable with the next-gen consoles and we saw a slew of sequels this year. Gears of War 2, Fallout 3, Fable II, the seventh Tomb Raider. One of my personal favourites was Little Big Planet; superb artistry and a fantastic marketing job by Sony - yet it didn’t make the numbers. I wonder if Christmas is really the right time to release a new title. We’ve got into a rhythm [of sequels at Christmas] which is all fair and well while people are buying games but we have to make sure we don’t get complacent. Next year, well, it’s all looking a bit dry. All the triple A titles came out this Christmas and while there is stuff in 2010 we can look forward to, off the top of my head I cannot think of anything next year that really excites me. Everyone says games are good value for home entertainment, despite the relatively high price. I’m not so sure. I think we’re going to see a lot of price pressure put on games. And as for Lionhead: now we’ve got Fable II out of the door we can focus on our other project - it’s super secret for now - but we might announce it next year.” PAUL BARNETT: Creative director, Mythic Entertainment “Personally 2008 was like giving birth: lots of pain, struggle, huffing, and puffing. But the end result [Warhammer Online] was worth it; it’s no longer ours, it belongs to the players. It was a year of disappointing big games; budgets too big, development too long, platforms underdeveloped, and expectations were too high. The Wii produced some kooky games that defied logic, the 360 continues to do well, the PS3 is desperately trying to find a market, and the PC was coming to terms with DRM (digital rights management). At the same time, 2008 was the year that web browser games came of age: proof that backroom coders, great art design, and business know-how can exist under the same roof: Passage, Shift, World of Good, and Portal were all very curious. GTA IV was the most impressive game of 2009, because it’s almost impossible to deliver a game that good. It was a proper computer game, it sold bucket loads, and it improved on the original. Not only that, but it was British! I’m not a fan of the game but I am really respectful of what they [Rockstar] have done. Bioshock proved that art direction matters in a game - and it was truly a triumph of art. It looked good and every icon and element felt connected. People get wrapped up in the story and narrative. Bioshock never had a story - people pretended it does - it doesn’t. It’s simple and linear, but in terms of art it is fantastic. That said, some people confuse games with art and developing a game as an art title (as opposed to a good game with great art in it) will lead us into madness. As for Warhammer, we’re going to make good on our promises. We’ve got RvR [Realm vs Realm] hobby experience; this means bigger battles, more character, a stronger campaign. Basically, war is everywhere. As for next year, it’s going to be a year of pain for all the big labels and a continuing fight between games defining themselves as ‘art’, ‘design’ and ‘entertainment’. The games industry is going to go through the pain the music industry went through when the traditional way of making and selling their products goes through a radical shift. The route to the customer is undefined and income streams are uncertain. Large firms have a history of not being responsive (and being fearful) of change - the DRM fiasco (with Spore) is a classic example of that. I expect to see some large studios go under and some big name titles fail.” RICHARD GARRIOTT aka ‘Lord British’: Video game designer “For me, the high point - quite literally - was spending 12 days on the International Space Station. As a result, I’ve been somewhat outside the gaming scene; I was in quarantine for nearly three months in 2008. That said, Halo’s sequel was a big deal. World of Warcraft continues to dominate the massive multiplayer arena - more power to them. If I had to pick a developer who has done a bang up job, it would be Blizzard [the development team behind World of Warcraft]. The number of people they have converted is just amazing. They have shown all of us what good game development is all about. After 25 years at Origin, the last thing I wanted to make was yet another medieval fantasy game. Now, after a very interesting break, I’m keen to get back into the fray and work on a new game. Probably medieval fantasy and probably online; there’s something very powerful about getting people together.” WILL WRIGHT : Video game designer, Electronic Arts “2008 was the year that the console hit its stride, we’re seeing the rise of mobile gaming (along with user generated content) and, as we hear every eight years, the death of PC gaming. The Wii took everyone by surprise - not for its looks, but its accessibility. Games like Guitar Hero attracted non-gamers and Sony and Microsoft are responding to that with things like the ‘Avatar’ system and Little Big Planet. Next year, we’re going to see more connected games - more social networking rather than just multiplayer. What’s more, they are going to be more fractal in nature; how you interact with the game will depend not only on what you play (360 vs mobile) but where you play. So, for example, a mobile game that interacts with a GPS (global positioning system) so that where you physically play the game in the real world will have a direct effect on the game you are playing.” JOHNATHAN ‘Fatal1ty’ WENDEL: Professional games player “The high point for me was getting my new line of headphones. I’ve been working really hard to develop them with Creative and we saw our sales increase by 50% since 2007. That said, I think the credit crunch and subsequent fall out really hurt sponsorship of professional gamers. We used to have 300 people making a living from playing games; now we have less than 100. Because of that, I want to start sponsoring other gamers. They’re having a tough time at the moment, so I want to give something back to help them follow their dreams to become a professional gamer. I’m going to continue working on a professional series of headphones. I want people to use my headphones, not just to talk smack, but to use them in the real world by making them stylish and attractive. We’re close to getting that finalised and then we can launch. And as for the future, well I hope we’ll soon start seeing real 3D. You already get that experience in an iMax cinema. I think games will eventually go that way. I still want to use a mouse and keyboard to play, but if I can get that kind of graphical feel, that would be great. We really need to change the way we view a game.”
| By Mark Ward Technology correspondent, BBC News |
With the economic downturn affecting every corner of the globe, it is perhaps no surprise that it is likely to affect hi-tech criminals over the next 12 months. In contrast to many ordinary people, hi-tech criminals are likely to see opportunities to prosper rather than suffer in the downturn. So say some experts looking forwards to 2009 and what it will mean for the computer security world. “Crime tends to rise when you have more unemployment,” said Mikko Hypponen, chief research officer at F-Secure. “If you look, in general, where the attacks are coming from you can find social reasons behind them,” he said. “It’s not a technical problem, it’s social,” he said. Easy money Layoffs of many people familiar with net technology may tempt more into crime, he said, simply because their chances of being caught are slim. Equally, he said, the punishments for those that are caught are not harsh. Those that did turn to hi-tech crime would find, he said, an underground service economy that will sell them all the bits they need to get started as a net criminal. Some security firms fear that making people redundant could also trigger a wave of crime as aggrieved workers strike back at their employers. This could mean that the intellectual property that a company relies on to keep going, such as its customer database, is copied and walks out of the door when employees pack up and leave. “The damage that insiders can do should not be underestimated. It can take just a few minutes for an entire database that has taken years to build to be copied to a CD or USB stick,” said Adam Bosnian, a spokesman for Cyber-Ark. “With a faltering economy companies need to be especially vigilant about protecting their most sensitive data against nervous or disgruntled employees,” he said. Card games “I would imagine that fraud is going to increase next year,” said Carl Clump, chief executive of Retail Decisions that helps firms spot and tackle credit card fraud. Even with the global economic slump, he said, fraud had been increasing year on year and there was no reason to expect that 2009 would buck that trend. Widespread economic malaise would only act as a fillip to that rising tide, he said. “It’s a lucrative area and it’s relatively easy to do,” said Mr Clump. Security initiatives such as chip and pin may have tackled fraud at some points, said Mr Clump, but that meant fraudsters had focussed on the next weakest area. In particular, he said, many fraudsters have moved on to so-called Card Not Present fraud which is typically carried out via e-tail sites on the net. Figures released in September by the Association of Payment and Clearing Services (APACS) which represents the UK’s card firms showed that CNP fraud was up 18% on 2007 to 161.9m. Over the same period losses from UK online banking fraud rose by 185%. Those unwilling to become spammers or phishers, said Mr Clump, might well be a tempted into low-grade fraud - especially if they have lost their job or are struggling to make ends meet. “In times like these people take desperate measures,” he said. Dan Hubbard, chief technology officer at Websense, said the grim times could tempt people to make choices they would not make in better times. “Gambling tends to go up when economies are down,” he said. This might make people more willing to work alongside web criminals and act as money launderers or mules. Mr Hubbard said the ongoing development of the web, mash-ups and semantic technologies could introduce new vulnerabilities. “These will all add another level of complexity to the web,” he said. “It will create a rich user experience but behind the scenes it is grabbing data from all over the place,” he warned. Unless that was properly managed and thoroughly checked for security loopholes it could prove tempting for criminal groups. “There are more targets than ever,” said Mr Hubbard.